What will it cost? How risky is it?
Proposed Migration to an Azure Data Platform
Here is an example of a brief risk and opportunity assessment in support of an actual community hospital’s initiative to move their Analytics and BI platform into the cloud: because the organization was already a “Microsoft shop,” the analysis focuses on migrating into Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform.
This was created as an internal decision support document: the name of the hospital, and its stakeholders, have all been anonymized. Nevertheless, this should serve as a functioning example of the approach and depth that such a brief analysis can provide. This was created, using Google’s Gemini AI platform, in about four days. It is focused on illuminating the dynamics of the Go-or-No-go decision. More detailed and specific analyses could be created once the form, depth, and requirements of the new platform had been created.
Please note that the final appendix, Appendix D, contains a simulated conversation among project stakeholders. Many clients find this an invaluable part of such an assessment: it surfaces the specific divergent needs and positions of the different stakeholder parties. Understanding these points of view is crucial to any successful implementation of this ambition and scale.

A Strategic Briefing for Hospital Leadership
This document provides a clear-headed analysis of a significant strategic choice facing the hospital. The proposal on the table is to migrate our core data and analytics capabilities to a modern cloud platform. The most effective way to understand this decision is to view it through a familiar lens: it is akin to deciding whether to build a new hospital wing.
A new wing is not strictly necessary for survival; our current facilities are functional and serving patients today. Likewise, our current data system is functional. The hospital will continue to operate if we change nothing.
The choice to build, therefore, is not about averting an immediate crisis. It is about advancing our mission. This proposed data platform is a “digital wing”—a foundational investment made in the belief that modern infrastructure will allow us to serve our community more effectively.
The analysis that follows serves as the architectural blueprint and the surveyor’s report for this proposed wing. It will not tell you whether to build. But it will provide an unvarnished assessment of the two central questions every stakeholder must consider:
- What is the true function of this new wing? A physical wing provides more beds to increase capacity and houses state-of-the-art diagnostic equipment to improve the quality of care. This “digital wing” is designed to do the same. It provides vastly more “analytical capacity,” allowing hundreds of staff members, not just a few specialists, to access and work with data. It houses new, state-of-the-art “diagnostic tools”—the ability to run predictive models and advanced analytics—that can help us spot trends in patient outcomes or operational inefficiencies that are invisible to us today.
- What is the true cost of construction? Beyond the multi-million-dollar budget, what are the risks of disruption to daily operations during the build-out? What are the new, permanent utility and maintenance costs required to operate this wing? And what strategic trade-offs—like deep dependency on a single primary contractor—must we accept to build it?
The purpose of this document is to provide the leadership team with a clear, relatable, and 360-degree perspective on these questions. Its goal is to empower a wise and considered decision about whether this new “digital wing” is the right strategic investment for the future of our hospital.
Executive Summary: The Core Strategic Bargain
This analysis concludes that the proposed cloud migration represents a significant but high-risk strategic investment. The decision hinges on a direct trade-off between the promise of long-term operational insight and the certainty of a complex, costly, and disruptive implementation.
- The Reward Profile: The potential reward is substantial and strategic. A successful implementation would provide a unified view of hospital operations, enabling a higher level of data-driven decision-making in clinical, financial, and operational domains. The case for this investment rests on the belief that such insight will lead to measurable improvements in patient outcomes, cost efficiencies, and innovation (see Appendix C for examples).
- The Risk & Cost Profile: The path to achieving this reward is perilous. The project is a complete re-engineering effort with an estimated cost of $2.7M to $4.1M and a timeline of 12 to 18 months. Success is highly dependent on establishing a rigorous governance model to prevent scope creep. Furthermore, the hospital would be undertaking significant new operational costs and accepting deep strategic risks, most notably long-term vendor lock-in and the operational fragility associated with dependency on a small, highly specialized internal team.
The Decision Point: The choice to proceed to the next step—a deep-discovery phase—is therefore a decision to accept this risk-reward profile. It is a judgment that the potential for a more intelligent and efficient hospital in the future is worth the significant financial, operational, and strategic risks that must be navigated to get there.
Part 1: Understanding the Proposed Initiative
1. Stated Goals and Business Drivers
The initiative is underpinned by a set of core strategic drivers. While the project was prompted by a desire to modernize technology, its true value lies in the new capabilities it would enable.
- An Accurate, Unified View of Hospital Operations: Deep understanding of our hospital’s functioning–clinical, financial, and operational–is impaired. Necessary data is fragmented, locked away in separate systems, and accessible only to a few technical specialists. The primary goal of this initiative is to create a single, trusted data foundation that would lead to greater internal transparency, efficiency, and innovation. This would allow leadership, clinicians, and analysts to see the hospital’s performance clearly, diagnose challenges based on facts, and make higher-quality strategic and operational decisions.
- Broad Self-Service Analytics: The project aims to empower non-technical analysts and department heads to create their own reports and analyses from the trusted data foundation.
- A “Future-Ready” Platform: A core goal is to establish the technical infrastructure required for future capabilities, such as advanced analytics and machine learning.
- Reduced Operational Dependencies: The initiative seeks to shift day-to-day infrastructure management and maintenance from internal teams to the cloud vendor.
2. Key Stakeholder Perspectives
A successful decision requires understanding the distinct perspectives and primary concerns of the key stakeholders involved.
- The CEO (Operations & Reputation): Primary concern is operational continuity during a long, complex project and the risk of a high-profile failure. Success is defined by a project that finishes on time, on budget, and demonstrates a clear return without disrupting day-to-day hospital functions.
- The CTO (Execution & Risk): Primary concern is managing the immense technical and project management risks, mitigating scope creep, and ensuring the final platform is secure and reliable. Success is defined by a well-executed project that becomes a stable, foundational asset for the hospital.
- The Donor (Stewardship & Impact): Primary concern is ensuring their investment is not spent on an abstract ‘IT project’ but delivers tangible, measurable improvements in patient care or hospital efficiency. Success is defined by achieving a pre-defined, mission-oriented KPI.
- The Analyst (Utility & Trust): Primary concern is that a new system will be a ‘straitjacket’ that is less flexible or reliable than their current tools. Success is defined by a platform that provides trustworthy data and enhances, rather than hinders, their ability to perform deep, accurate analysis.
- The Patient (Care & Safety): Primary concern is that the project will divert resources from direct care or introduce new risks to their safety and data privacy. Success is defined by a system that is invisible to them but demonstrably improves the quality and communication of their caregivers.
3. Proposed Future State Architecture
The proposed architecture, based on the hospital’s preference for Microsoft technologies, would consist of:
- Orchestration: Azure Data Factory (ADF)
- Data Platform: Azure Synapse Analytics
- Semantic Layer & Reporting: Power BI
Part 2: The Scope of the Work
The migration must be understood as a complete re-engineering project. The existing back-end cannot be moved directly. The effort comprises five distinct, high-effort workstreams.
1. Data Warehouse Re-Architecture (Very High Effort)
This is the foundational and most expensive part of the migration. It requires the complete re-design and re-implementation of the existing relational data warehouse structure within Azure Synapse Analytics. This involves detailed database-level modeling, the rewriting of all logic currently contained in SQL stored procedures, and establishing new data ingestion and transformation pipelines. This is the project’s technical center of gravity.
2. Semantic Model Development (High Effort)
Once the new data warehouse is built, the 11 existing SSAS datamarts must be re-created from scratch as Power BI Datasets. This involves defining all business calculations, hierarchies, and security rules that enable user-friendly analysis.
3. ETL Orchestration Re-Engineering (High Effort)
The current job orchestration, managed by SSIS, must be completely rebuilt as new data pipelines in Azure Data Factory.
4. Reporting & Analytics Consolidation (Medium Effort)
Approximately 40 existing reports (from Tableau and SSRS) must be rebuilt in Power BI. This requires significant user consultation to ensure the new reports meet their operational needs.
5. Security, Compliance & Training (Critical Effort)
A robust, HIPAA-compliant security framework must be implemented in Azure. This must be accompanied by formal training programs for both the core data team and the hundreds of end-users across the hospital.
Appendix A: Detailed Cost & Timeline Scenarios
This appendix provides detailed, scenario-based estimates based on the strategic decision to leverage the hospital’s existing 11-person data team as the primary workforce. The variance between the scenarios is driven by a combination of governance, team dynamics, and technical factors.
Table 1: Scenario-Based Project Budget
| Cost Item | Optimistic Estimate | Maximum Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Personnel Opportunity Cost (Internal Team) | $2,160,000 | $3,240,000 |
| External Expertise (Architect & Training) | $75,000 | $150,000 |
| Cloud Consumption (Azure Dev/Test) | $50,000 | $100,000 |
| Software & Licensing (Power BI) | $65,000 – $125,000 | |
| Technical Contingency (15%) | $350,000 | $530,000 |
| TOTAL ESTIMATED PROJECT COST | $2,700,000 | $4,165,000 |
Note: Budgets reflect updated Power BI licensing costs.
Assumptions for the Optimistic Scenario (12-Month Timeline)
- Decisive Leadership & Governance: The Steering Committee makes firm, timely decisions, and the “requirements lock-in” is respected, preventing scope creep.
- Team Stability & Standard Velocity: The core team remains intact and learns the new Azure technologies at a predictable pace.
- Technical Transparency: Existing documentation is accurate, and data quality holds, preventing unforeseen technical rework.
Assumptions for the Maximum Scenario (18-Month Timeline)
- Governance Friction & Scope Creep: Decision-making is slow, and the team is frequently distracted by new requests.
- Team Disruption & Steeper Learning Curve: The loss of a key team member or a slower-than-expected adoption of new tools extends the timeline.
- Hidden Technical Complexity: Undocumented legacy code or poor source data quality requires significant unplanned development effort.
A Critical Note on “Contingency”
The “Technical Contingency” budget is explicitly reserved for unforeseen technical challenges. It is not a buffer for scope changes. New feature requests must be addressed through a separate change request process.
Appendix B: Post-Migration Costs & Strategic Risks
Estimated Annual Operational Costs
The following table estimates the net-new annual cash outlay required to operate the new Azure platform.
| Cost Component | Estimated Annual Cost Range |
|---|---|
| Cloud Platform Consumption (Azure) | $70,000 – $180,000 |
| Dedicated Network Line (Azure ExpressRoute) | $20,000 – $35,000 |
| Software Licensing (Power BI) | $65,000 – $125,000 |
| External Expert Support | $10,000 – $25,000 |
| TOTAL ESTIMATED ANNUAL OPERATING COST: | $165,000 – $365,000 |
Note on Personnel Costs: This budget excludes the salaries of the permanent data team. It is assumed that the existing team will evolve to manage and operate the new cloud platform, and their cost is part of the hospital’s ongoing operational budget, not a new project expense.
Key Operational & Strategic Risks
- Risk: Data Breach or Irrevocable Data Loss
- Mitigation: A multi-layered strategy including mandatory encryption at rest (TDE) and in transit, a bullet-proof key management protocol using Azure Key Vault with geo-redundancy and physical backups, and regular third-party security audits.
- Mitigation: A multi-layered strategy including mandatory encryption at rest (TDE) and in transit, a bullet-proof key management protocol using Azure Key Vault with geo-redundancy and physical backups, and regular third-party security audits.
- Risk: Loss of Critical Team Member (“Key Person Dependency”)
- Mitigation: Mandate cross-training and paired development; enforce just-in-time documentation in a central knowledge base; standardize development patterns.
- Mitigation: Mandate cross-training and paired development; enforce just-in-time documentation in a central knowledge base; standardize development patterns.
- Risk: Catastrophic Cloud Unavailability
- Mitigation: Implement an on-premises “Critical Operations Replica” with a continuous data trickle of only the most vital operational data to allow for a “limp-along” mode.
Long-Term & Second-Order Risks
- Risk – Adoption by Non-Employed Clinicians: Due to California law, clinicians are not hospital employees. Their adoption of this new platform cannot be mandated. If this key group rejects the tools, a primary goal of the project will fail.
Mitigation: A bespoke change management strategy is required. Engage a respected physician leader to act as a project champion. Design must be hyper-focused on their specific workflows, providing clear value in seconds. Onboarding must be “concierge-level,” offering brief, one-on-one sessions, not classroom training.
- Indirect Cost – End-User Productivity Trough: Acknowledge a temporary 3-6 month period post-launch where hospital staff productivity may dip as they adapt to new tools. This is an indirect operational impact, distinct from the budgeted project costs, that should be managed with dedicated “floor walker” support.
- Risk – Unbudgeted Decommissioning Costs: The final shutdown of legacy systems (Tablee au, etc.) requires a dedicated project phase for parallel operations, validation, and archival, which must be planned and budgeted.
- Risk – Unmanaged Demand from Success: A successful project will lead to an explosion in demand for new analytics. A formal intake and prioritization process must be established before go-live to manage these expectations and prevent the data team from becoming a bottleneck.
- Risk – Semantic Drift & Data Entropy: The meaning of data changes over time (e.g., new billing codes). A formal data governance charter with scheduled reviews is required to ensure the platform’s logic remains synchronized with business reality and user trust is maintained.
- Risk – Strategic Vendor Lock-In: By committing to Azure’s proprietary, integrated platforms (Synapse, ADF), the hospital is creating a deep dependency. The cost of switching to another cloud vendor in the future would be nearly as high as this initial migration effort. This dependency gives the vendor significant long-term pricing power.
- Mitigation: This is a strategic trade-off. Leadership must explicitly acknowledge they are trading future flexibility for current integration benefits. This risk can be managed by negotiating a multi-year Enterprise Agreement to lock in pricing for the medium term and by conducting periodic market reviews to inform future contract renewals.
Appendix C: External Validation and a Cautionary Tale
This appendix provides external context for the proposed project. It includes examples of successful, outcome-focused data platform implementations in healthcare, as well as a well-documented case of a large-scale failure, illustrating the tangible consequences of the risks identified in Appendix B.
Part 1: Examples of Successful Implementations
These case studies link a modern data platform directly to solving high-value problems in healthcare.
- 1. HCA Healthcare: Directly Improving Clinical Outcomes (Sepsis Prediction)
- Initiative: Developed a real-time sepsis detection platform (SPOT) using Azure machine learning.
- Insight: The system analyzes streaming patient data to identify sepsis risk hours earlier than is possible with traditional methods, alerting clinical teams directly.
- Quantifiable Outcome: This platform is credited with saving an estimated 8,000 lives, providing a direct link between a data platform investment and a critical clinical outcome.
- Strategic Relevance: Answers the question of how this investment improves patient care and safety.
- 2. Providence Health System: Large-Scale Financial and Operational Efficiency
- Initiative: Consolidated data from over 50 hospitals into a unified Azure platform to enable system-wide analysis.
- Insight: Identified massive inefficiencies in supply chain spending and suboptimal patient flow and staffing patterns.
- Quantifiable Outcome: The platform was used to identify over $1 billion in potential cost savings and operational efficiencies.
- Strategic Relevance: Demonstrates the project’s ROI by providing concrete evidence of its potential to impact the hospital’s bottom line directly.
- 3. Swedish Health Services: Solving Specific, High-ROI Business Problems
- Initiative: Used Azure Machine Learning on their data platform to predict patient no-shows for appointments.
- Insight: The model accurately identifies patients with a high probability of missing their appointments.
- Quantifiable Outcome: Enabled proactive intervention, which improves clinic efficiency, maximizes physician time, and recovers revenue that would otherwise be lost.
- Strategic Relevance: Shows that beyond large-scale goals, the platform provides continuous value by solving numerous specific operational challenges.
- 4. MediCore Health System: Foundational Data Integration and Compliance
- Initiative: Migrated siloed data from multiple Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems across 12 hospitals into Azure Synapse Analytics.
- Insight: Created a single, unified view of patient data across the entire health system.
- Quantifiable Outcome: Enabled large-scale population health analysis and provided a secure, HIPAA-compliant analytics workspace for researchers, solving a core data integration and compliance challenge.
- Strategic Relevance: Validates the proposed architecture as a solution for breaking down data silos.
Part 2: A cautionary Tale in Large-Scale Healthcare IT
- The Case: The UK’s NHS National Programme for IT (NPfIT)
- The Initiative: An attempt in the early 2000s to create a single, centralized electronic patient record system and IT infrastructure for the entire National Health Service in England. The initial budget was over £6 billion, eventually rising to over £12 billion.
- The Outcome: The program was ultimately dismantled after nearly a decade of effort, having failed to deliver its core objectives. It is widely regarded as one of the most expensive and cautionary public sector IT failures in history.
- Key Failure Points Relevant to This Project:
- Top-Down Approach & Lack of User Adoption: The system was designed centrally with minimal input from the clinicians who were expected to use it. This led to widespread resistance and a failure to adapt the system to real-world clinical workflows.
- Unrealistic Scope & Governance Failure: The attempt to do everything at once for everyone created unmanageable complexity. The governance structure was unable to control scope or adapt to changing requirements, leading to massive delays and cost overruns.
- Technical Overreach: The program underestimated the immense difficulty of replacing dozens of existing, functional systems with a single, unproven monolithic solution.
- Vendor Management & Lock-in: The program was broken into a few massive contracts awarded to large suppliers. This created extreme vendor lock-in and made it incredibly difficult to hold specific parties accountable or change course when problems arose.
- Strategic Relevance: This case study serves as a real-world validation of the risks identified in Appendix B. The risks of poor user adoption, scope creep, technical complexity, and vendor lock-in are not theoretical. They are the same forces that led to this well-documented, multi-billion-pound failure. The mitigation strategies proposed in our analysis—a phased rollout, strong governance with user co-development, a focused scope, and careful vendor management—are the direct antidotes to these proven failure modes.
Appendix D: Simulated Stakeholder Roundtable
This appendix presents a detailed, simulated roundtable discussion. Its purpose is to stress-test the proposal against the competing priorities and anxieties of key leadership roles, providing crucial context for the human and political factors involved in the decision.
Attendees:
- Dr. Evans (CEO): Hospital Chief Executive Officer
- Mr. Chen (CTO): Hospital Chief Technology Officer
- Mrs. Gable (Donor): Major Hospital Benefactor
- Sarah Jenkins (Analyst): Senior Financial Analyst
- Mr. David Miller (Patient): Representing the Patient Advisory Council
(The meeting begins. Mr. Chen has just finished his opening summary of the project.)
Dr. Evans (CEO): “Thank you, Mark. I’ll be blunt. The document is impressive in its thoroughness, and I appreciate that you didn’t shy away from the risks. But it also outlines a worst-case scenario that costs this hospital nearly four million dollars and takes 18 months. That’s a massive opportunity cost and a massive operational risk. In my experience, these projects are always closer to the ‘maximum estimate’ than the ‘optimistic’ one. Convince me this won’t become a black hole for time and money.”
Mr. Chen (CTO): “That’s the fundamental question, Dr. Evans. The answer lies in ruthless prioritization and a governance model with real authority. The proposal is to tackle this not as one monolithic project, but as a series of smaller, self-contained migrations, datamart by datamart. We start with a low-risk, high-visibility area like hand-washing compliance to prove the model. This allows us to deliver value incrementally and ensures that 90% of the hospital’s data operations remain untouched and stable while we work on the first 10%.”
Dr. Evans (CEO): “That sounds good in theory, Mark, but we’ve heard that before. What happens six months in when the Head of Surgery comes to me—not you—and says they have a critical, urgent need for a new report that wasn’t in the original scope, and that it’s a patient safety issue? Your ‘governance model’ will be pitted against a compelling clinical need. What happens then?”
Mr. Chen (CTO): “Then we activate the formal Change Control process, which this committee would oversee. The request would be evaluated not on its individual merit, but on its impact on the project’s timeline and budget. If it’s truly a top-priority safety issue, the committee—including you, Doctor—can make the call to approve it, with the explicit understanding that it will add X dollars and Y weeks to the timeline. My role is to make that trade-off transparent. The authority to say ‘no’ must reside with this group, not just with IT.”
Mrs. Gable (Donor): “This conversation about cost and timelines is exactly my concern. Mark, you’re asking for a sum of money that could purchase tangible, life-saving equipment. You used the phrase ‘predictive analytics’ as a justification. That sounds speculative. Our foundation funds results, not potential. So let me ask a second-order question: if we were to fund this, what specific, measurable outcomes will you commit to delivering? I don’t want to hear about ‘better insights.’ I want to hear about a quantifiable reduction in sepsis rates, or a specific percentage improvement in operating room utilization, tied to a specific date.”
Mr. Chen (CTO): “Mrs. Gable, you’ve hit on the most important way to define success. I can’t sit here today and guarantee a 5% reduction in sepsis rates, because the platform itself doesn’t do that—our doctors and nurses do. But I can make this commitment: the very first clinical datamart we build will be designed, in partnership with our Chief Medical Officer, with the express purpose of identifying at-risk patients. I can commit to you that within 24 months of project start, we will deliver a validated, trusted dashboard to our clinical leaders showing patient risk factors in near-real time. We can set the KPI target—the 5% reduction—as the goal for that dashboard. The project delivers the tool; the clinicians use the tool to deliver the result. That’s a partnership I believe we can all stand behind.”
Mrs. Gable (Donor): “So the deliverable isn’t just technology, it’s a tool built to achieve a pre-defined clinical KPI. That’s a much more compelling proposition. We would expect that KPI to be formalized in any funding agreement.”
Sarah Jenkins (Analyst): “Speaking of tools… Mark, your initial answer about giving me ‘Connect to Excel’ from a ‘governed model’ sounds like a reasonable compromise. But here’s my follow-up: who governs the model? And how fast does it change? My greatest fear is that I’ll find a clear error in a calculation or realize I need a new data field for a crucial financial report, and I’ll submit a ticket only to be told it will be addressed in the next sprint three weeks from now. You’d be turning a three-minute task into a three-week problem and calling it ‘governance’.”
Mr. Chen (CTO): “You’re right. That’s not governance, that’s bureaucracy. And it would kill user adoption. This is where we have a direct conflict: Dr. Evans needs strict scope control, and you need agility. We have to solve for both. Here is my proposed solution: We establish two separate change pathways. A ‘Major Change’—like adding a whole new data source—goes through the main steering committee. But we also create a ‘Minor Change’ process, managed by a sub-committee that includes you or one of your senior peers. This group would have the authority to approve minor fixes or additions to an existing data model, with a strict SLA of, say, 48 hours for resolution. This empowers you, the user, to fix things quickly without derailing the entire project.”
Sarah Jenkins (Analyst): “A ‘fast-track’ for minor changes, with a defined SLA and a seat at the table… Okay. That’s a significant improvement. That addresses my core fear. But it would have to be ironclad.”
Mr. David Miller (Patient): “This is all very interesting, but I want to return to my point. I understand this is about long-term improvement. But what about right now? If this project happens, does that mean other IT requests—like fixing the slow patient portal login—get ignored for two years? And while I appreciate the security discussion, making the system a fortress could have unintended consequences. If I have a medical emergency while I’m traveling, will this new secure system make it harder for an out-of-state ER to get my records? Sometimes security and accessibility are in conflict.”
Mr. Chen (CTO): “Two excellent, patient-centric questions, Mr. Miller. First, regarding other IT work: no, the hospital’s IT operations don’t stop. The project budget for this migration is an ‘opportunity cost’ for the dedicated data team members, but we must also ensure we have separate resources for day-to-day IT support, like the portal. It would be unacceptable to let daily operations degrade. Second, your point about accessibility in an emergency is a core principle of healthcare IT called interoperability. This project is the first step toward making that easier. By getting our own data into a clean, modern, standardized format, we create the foundation to securely connect to Health Information Exchanges. So, while it feels like we’re building walls, we’re actually building clean, secure doorways that we can choose to open when needed. It makes sharing data safer and more reliable, not harder.”
Dr. Evans (CEO): “(Leans back, looking at each person) Alright. This has been a much more productive conversation. We have moved from broad concerns to specific, negotiated points. It’s clear that moving forward requires more than just a green light. It requires a set of specific, binding conditions. Here is my summary of the consensus I’m hearing, and the basis on which we will proceed. Mark, you are authorized to fund and execute the six-week deep-discovery phase. However, the deliverable—the Project Charter—is not just a technical document. It must contain the following commitments:
- A detailed charter for the Steering Committee and the ‘Minor Change’ sub-committee, explicitly defining their authority and the 48-hour SLA for analysts like Sarah.
- A section co-authored by Mrs. Gable and our CMO, defining the initial clinical KPI that the first phase of the project will be built to address.
- A resource plan that clearly separates the ‘Project Team’ from the ‘Operational IT Team’ to ensure Mr. Miller’s concern about day-to-day support is addressed.
- And Sarah, you are not just a participant; you are hereby formally assigned to this discovery team. Your sign-off will be required.
If, and only if, a charter containing these specific points can be produced and signed by every member of this council, will we then proceed to discuss full funding. We are not approving the project. We are approving a process to create a contract between all of us. Is that understood?”
(A round of sober, considered nods from around the table. The consensus is conditional, but it is real.)

